The constitutional future of England lies firmly and irrevocably both explicitly and implicitly in the formulations of the 1998 devolution legislation. By that I mean that the clauses of that legislation affirmed that devolution was being given to Scotland and Wales as distinct nations; not as 'regions' nor as 'devolved adminstrations' or 'devolved territories' but expressly as nations, and distinct nations at that. The most fundamental presumption of the 1998 legislation, its very basis, was that it was dealing with nations (and that is why the GLA with its mayor was local government re-organisation, not devolution). The presumption was from start to finish that both Scotland and Wales were each one people, each with it own distinct land, history and culture. That pretty well is what a nation is. What the legislation did was to hand over that to that land, history and culture a degree of self-government which would confer a distinct constitutional and political distinct existence. Nationhood was the explicit basis of the 1998 legislation. It found its very simple and direct formulation in the use of the word 'Scotland' and 'Wales' throughout. There is not a single soul in this island who does not understand what those two words mean.

The legislation formally and decisively made a crucial amendment to the 1707 Act of Union. Once Scotland and Wales were given that formal political and constitutional recognition as distinct nations, each with its own national institution of some degree of self rule, British identity as the sole political and constitutional identity of the people of this island ceased. As did British rule and government as the sole political and constitutional rule. Identity and self-rule are catalysts the outcomes of which are indeterminiable. At present the Blair government finds itself as a talking-point mainly because of the Iraq War. Possibly we cannot exaggerate the long term effects of that venture. However, I would say that in the long term or historically the most important measure of that government will be seen to have been the 1998 devolution legislation. That one Act of Parliament will in due course be seen to have been the most important legacy of the Blair years. What it did was to re-establish England, Scotland and Wales as distinct national entities. A catalyst of incalculable effect and significance; and one that happened when Britain had ceased to matter. The Empire had gone, the EU had arrived.

I say that the 1998 Devolution legislation has re-established England as a distinct national entity as well as Scotland and Wales. Not of course in the same way, not with the same formal recognition. But by implication. It is the implicit effect of the legislation. Politically and constitutionally England is the part of Britain that isn't Scotland and Wales, the part of Britain that received no devolution, received no political recognition and constitutional recognition. So England exists as a distinct entity within the Union by default. It's the bit that was left out of the devolution process. But it exists now separately governmentally by reason of the 1998 devolution legislation.

It is of immense significance that this legislation had a colossal hole in it. One has to wonder about what was going through the mind of our legislators in 1998. Did they think that the people of England would not notice; or if they did notice, they wouldn't mind? Or if there were any problems they could be got over by ignoring them? Did they think it just did not matter? Did they think at all? A Welsh woman one yard inside the Welsh border gets free prescriptions while her neighbour inside the English border shopping in the same shops doesn't. A Scottish student one side of the bridge at Coldstream gets free university education and the English student a stone's throw the other side finds himself landed with anything from £15000 to £30000 debts for the same degree; and that even if both of them were attending the same university, doing the same degree, in the same halls of residence, both at the same time. Scottish MPs can vote on matters for England, and, as we have seen, force legislation upon the English, without reciprocation. And then there is the absurdity of the situation where Scottish MPs, even a Scottish Prime Minister, have no say whatsoever in the most fundamental of governmental matters like education and health in their own constituencies. It is so cackhanded, it is hard to believe it was passed into law. But it was and it's where we are. One wonders, were the Scottish MPs that were running the New Labour Government in 1997 so intent on getting whatever they could for Scotland that they were blind to consequences? Were the English MPs that constituted some 80% of all the MPs in the 1997 parliament so guilt-ridden about ruling Scotland and Wales for centuries that they felt they had to submit regardless to whatever the Browns, Irvines, Cooks, Dewars and co wanted for Scotland? Or were they simply devoid of any powers of analysis? Or both?

As we all know, there is the old law of unforeseen consequences. As the dust of devolution has settled, something has been seen to emerge. England has emerged. It might well be by default and it most definitely wasn't intended, but the fact is, England is back. This has happened in all sorts of ways, and is still happening, and will keep happening, above all in the minds of the people of England itself. For example, there is now an English NHS, one can see in NHS offices in England a map just of England. The Westminster Health Minister and the Education Minister are for England only. There is no UK minister for either. These are not straws in the wind but hard facts on the ground. English people now see -as was never an issue before 1998- that the Scots and the Welsh get £1600 more per person per annum spent on them from taxation, 90% of which comes from England. English people now know -and resent but feel powerless about- the comparative inequity of prescription charges, hospital parking charges, university fees, optician and dental charges, council tax, water rates, care for the elderly, availability of the most uptodate drugs. They now hear about the Barnett Formula as never before. And again as never before they have become acutely aware of the disproportionate numbers of Scots in government and the media. They see that Scotland and Wales now have their own parliaments from which the English voice is excluded. All these things are major drivers of English self-awareness.

It is all down to the devolution legislation of 1998. That more than anything has achieved this for England. It was definitely the last thing on the minds of Brown and co when he drove the legislation pell mell through Parliament, the very last thing he more than anyone else wanted, but it is a fact. What that legislation did was inform the English people that on this island there's the Scots and there's the Welsh and they're getting their own parliament and assembly because they are distinct from the English. The oneness of the British nation, even if only political and constitutional, went clean out of the window. That was and that is the unavoidable consequence of the 1998 legislation. Once England re-emerged, even though only by default, as a distinct nation, which it did thanks to the legislation, the scene was set for the demand for self-rule. No nation worth its salt will take anything less. the Campaign for an English Parliament was set up that very same year. By default England's identity has been restored to it. By default it has been made aware of itself. The way forward is an inevitability. It is not a coincidence, it was not by sheer chance, that after 1998 we have all witnessed the incredible display of English flags whether for football competitions or cricket or rugby or athletics. People from other countries tell me they have never seen anything like it where they come from. England is back.

However, England is only just beginning to be back politically and constitutionally. So far only in slight ways as I have mentioned. The forces lined up against giving it any institution which will be a statement of its distinct nationhood like Scotland and Wales have, are immense. The hostility to it, the determination to stop it by the UK ruling elites, the political parties, all sorts of departments in academia, political think tanks and the media, above all BBC, has been very adequately described already in this series of contributions. I have a very choice record of correspondence on the matter with the Director (in about 2002) of the BBC department of 'Nations and Regions', the nations of course being Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, the regions being a balkanised England. I had written to the BBC to ask for a BBC England just as there is a BBC Scotland, a BBC Wales and a BBC NI. "No" was the reply I received. "Why not?" I asked. "Because England is too big". "Well", I said, "if England is too big, how come you have a BBC which covers all four, and a BBC World Service? The 'World' is somewhat bigger than England." I received no reply.

For the past twelve years I have been very actively involved in the Campaign for an English Parliament. In that time we have made great strides forward. A book could be written on our experiences, indeed one should be. From being on the fringe the Campaign and its basic idea is part of the debate. There is even the expectation, not just among our members but much more widespread, again as one contributor to this series of essays has stated and as opinion polls indicate, that if a referendum were held an English Parliament would be supported. Regionalism, favoured by both the Labour party and the Lib Dems, has been decisively rejected. However, given the degree of Establishment opposition to any form of devolution for England, even to the expression of Englishness and to English patriotism, again very well described in this series, it would be a very rash person who would expect anything other than a very long march indeed.

The question posed by this series is: Constitutional Futures. Where Now? What I have done so far is set out the constitutional position England is in. By default its distinct nationhood, at least territorially, is recognised. The opposition of the UK Establishment to giving its nationhood any political and constitutional recognition is widespread and intense; and it is that Establishment that controls almost all the levers of influence and power. However, what the UK Establishment does not control by reason of the 1998 legislation it itself was responsible for is the institutions of self-rule in Scotland and Wales; neither has any control over Scottish and Welsh nationalism; and therein resides what could well be the biggest and most potent driver of all when it comes to trying to predict what the constitutional future of England will be. The UK Establishment is so concerned to keep the lid on Scottish and Welsh nationalism in order to preserve the existing shape of the Union that is is prepared to increase the powers of self-rule devolved to both countries.

The UK Establishment has committed itself to granting more powers to both Scotland and Wales. That again has been described adequately in this series of essays, so no need of repetition. The outcome however of this Establishment policy and attitude will be for England politically and constitutionally what financially the Barnett Formula is for Scotland and Wales. The more powers the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh Assembly get, that much less is the power to govern them that the UK Parliament has. That in turn means that with any UK ministry, the less it is concerned with Scotland and Wales, the more it is concerned just with England. The more in this way that Scotland and Wales pull away, the more English concerns become England's own concerns. The more distinct politically, constitutionally and culturally Scotland and Wales become department of state by department of state, the more distinct politically, constitutionally and culturally England becomes. Succintly, the more Scotland and Wales become distinct, the more England becomes distinct, becomes itself. The UK Establishment has already legislated three distinct nations back into existence, two with deliberation, one by default. The more powers it cedes to Scotland and Wales, the more separate, different and distinct they become. And by default that applies to England too. I would like to suggest that this process will be the main driver in what will constitute England's future political existence. More than any form of EVEL, though that too, if it happens, will be highly significant. Also, the more all this happens, the more it will highlight and inflame the West Lothian Question.

I do not know what we in the CEP will achieve by our campaigning just as we did not know when we started in June 1998 when the devolution legislation was enacted. We have moved mountains so far. We will not reduce our efforts in the slightest. Our efforts and our influence will increase. However, to the Question 'Where Now?' one answer can be given. Just as England came back as a distinct nation with the 1998 legislation, it will gain more and more political, constitutional and and cultural expression and strength of its self-identity with every gain Scotland and Wales achieve from the UK Establishment; and both those countries are about to get more powers. What has to be considered too will be the long term significance and effects of the concession of more powers to Scotland and Wales. The more they get and the more the exercise them, the less they will be reliant upon the Union. The Union will recede in its significance as it concedes power by power. And the further and further Scotland and Wales will slip away from significance in the lives and the government of England. The opposition to an English Parliament is deep and intense within the UK Establishment. However, so is the preservation of the Union. To the mind of the Establshment the two are inseparable. To achieve the latter it will concede more and more to Scotland and Wales. We might well find that this strategy of preservation is the best ally an English Parliament can have.

Mike Knowles is a member of the Campaign for an English Parliament.

This post is part of the Constitutional Futures series.